How Much Can Looking at Weather Trends Really Tell You About Your Wedding Date?
Weather prediction tools and the Farmer's Almanac aren't flawless, but they can be helpful.
Couples planning outdoor weddings, whether only for the ceremony or for both the ceremony and reception, are often faced with weather worries. There are multiple tools couples can turn to for predictions and to see historic data of weather on a particular date in the past, but there's no tool out there that's one hundred percent accurate or flawless. So, what can these tools really tell you as you choose a wedding date or begin planning? Let's take a look.
Weather Prediction Tools
The Old Farmer's Almanac has been around since 1792 and has been a reliable source of weather predictions since. According to the company, there's about an 80% accuracy rate in their weather predictions, though they say that can fluctuate slightly from year to year. The thing to keep in mind, however, is that the tool predicts weather for the month and region rather than a per-day, per-city analysis. You'll also need to purchase the current edition to see the year's forecast.
Though the Farmer's Almanac is the most popular prediction tool, there are other weather prediction tools available online. A tool created by Bloomingdale's uses weather data from the 1,000 most populous U.S. cities to make its predictions of the optimal wedding dates with comfortable temperatures around 72 degrees and a low chance of precipitation. This tool will tell you the average temperature, chance of rain, chance of clear sky, and humidity level predictions based on climate norms from 1981-2010. There's no percentage of accuracy touted on the tool's website, but you can input a specific day for info.
Always Have a Backup Plan
No weather prediction tool will ever be 100% accurate, so while you can make a pretty good bet that the weather will be rain-free in August in Napa, you still might want to have a backup plan. What if there's a heat wave and that peak-hour sunshine is simply too hot for your ceremony? What if an unexpected weather event comes along? Having a backup plan is an easy way to help manage any weather anxiety you might be having. As well, it's a lot easier to swap to your Plan B if it's a well-considered, thoroughly detailed plan than if you have to come up with a last minute solution to a weather problem.